Low-$30k J3300 Sonexes on Barnstormers

[ihab]

Hey everyone,

While practicing my pastime of crawling Barnstormers.com looking at Sonex listings, I have been noticing in the past -- oh -- month or two that there is a whole bunch of really nice offerings with Jabiru 3300 engines in the United States in the $30-35k range. I'm more accustomed to these planes being in the $40-45k range.

What's happening? Is this just a fluke? Is the airplane market depressed these days for some reason? Is the promise of FAA Class 3 medical reform making people hesitate to purchase LSAs because they think they might be able to buy a Cherokee and fly it around without a medical?

Ihab

[MichaelFarley56]

Good question Ihab,

This is just my two cents so please take it for what it's worth, but overall I think you're right on all aspects. Mostly I believe we're looking at a very depressed aircraft market right now which is a result of an economy that simply isn't bouncing back like the government wants you to believe. People aren't able to put money into recreational activities like they used to, and as a result the value of used airplanes has been falling.

I chat about this with a prominent aircraft salesman at the FBO where I'm based. He agrees and sees the very same thing. He's moving inventory but aircraft value isn't all that high right now. In the last few months things were getting a little better but it's still nothing like it was back in the mid 2000's. Lately he's been getting a lot of calls from people who have sat on their Cessna 172's, Cherokee's, etc. for the better part of 10 years and now they want to sell them for a high value. My friend hates to turn down business but is very frank on letting people know you won't get as much out of a used airplane as you want right now.

I'm not sure if the Class 3 medical possibilities are a factor or not. Personally, I've worked with the FAA enough to know that you NEVER count your chickens before they hatch. At this point I'm still not optimistic anything will ever happen, but time will tell.

When looking at most used homebuilts on the market right now, I see very few that can be bought for more than what the builder put into the project in order to complete the airplane. It seems that AeroVee Sonexes are selling (slowly) in the $20-25K range and Jab 3300 examples are $30-35k. It's sad but that's the market right now.

On the other hand, if you're in the market to buy, now's probably an excellent time!

What does everyone else think?

[Bryan Cotton]

I think the used airplane market follows the same rules of supply and demand as anything else. The demand is lower than the supply - prices go down.

[ihab]

Thanks Mike and Bryan!

As for being in the market, don't tempt me...! ;)

About the FAA and 3rd class medical reform -- well, one person who probably (?) knows what's going on, the famous and respected Senior AME Dr Bruce Chien ("Doctor Bruce"), has hinted on the AOPA forums that at least some people will be disappointed with the proposed rule that will come out. I for one am not holding my breath for a huge outbreak of reasonableness in Oklahoma City any time soon.

Ihab

[DCASonex]

I just hope that bureaucrats natural instinct to control does not result in sport pilots being lumped in together with other pilots with some compromise on medical requirements that is stricter than just a drivers's licence. Most any change from today's standards likely means the death of the LSA industry. Fortunately, Sonex predates LSA, and will remain a viable choice for builders and pilots, but will see some negative impact.

David A.

[fastj22]

I also monitor resale prices of Sonex on Barnstormers and am disappointed in the low values.
But it is what it is. Its not an IFR platform. Its not a great long X-country machine for two people. But it is a great yank and bank get your fix machine.

I don't think the FAA relaxing the medical will have much impact on Sonex. I do think it will destroy the SLSA market though. The reason sonex will survive is because its the best bang for the buck and you can go upside down in it. But being the best bang for the buck also keeps resale values low.

[LarryEWaiex121]

Hey gang,

The sad fact of the matter is, the entire pilot population is getting older and the young kids of today can't get excited about something like getting their pilots license when they find out it takes more than a weekend of focus and effort.
Relief from the 3rd class medical will extend the life of aviation a few more years but my guess is the hours flown, number of registered planes, number of airports, gallons of fuel sold will all slowly spiral down.
You can get a motorcycle license in a weekend of effort. You can take a coast guard test and be in control of your 28' cabin cruiser in 8 hrs of class room time in most states. You can get your 40' diesel pusher RV with a hitch pulling your Jeep Cherokee and whistle down the freeway at light speed with nothing more than a class D license. Do I need to make the case anymore?
See, I'm a die hard and I'm going to fly until they shoot me down or I run out of money. That's because I LOVE airplanes and have since I can remember looking up. I'm a dinosaur in my own time.
My old home town airport has a very strong program of teaching private, commercial and instrument students. Its kind of out of place by todays standards. They have two simulators and even glass panel multi-engine. They have multiple 172s, 182s, a fully loaded Commanche for complex time and even a citabria for tail-wheel training.
I'm in total amazement of the number of students they have. This flys in the face of the comments I just made, but I still believe the case I layed out basically stands. Many of these students spend the cash to get their licenses and after about 3 yrs you never see them at an airport again. I guess they just max out at spending, loose their thrill of flying because their no longer actively learning. Who knows why so many give up flying?
In summation of the questions about why Sonex's are selling so cheap, it appears the reasons are many. I don't think the future of unleaded fuel is going to help the matter either. In any case the replacement won't be cheaper or more widely available I'm guessing? I believe an entire class of piston powered airplanes are headed to the dust bin over a fairly short period of time. Virtually every manufacturer has something in the works or already producing diesel or jet A powered alternatives as the technology becomes more viable. None of which appeals to guys on a beer budget I might add.
Most folks building Sonex type aircraft are as much into the building aspect of the project as they are the flying part of things. We all enjoy chatting about how we fixed or changed this or that and that is where the real value is in homebuilding. I rather doubt most of us intend or believe were going to get out of this game on the upside of the cash position?
Take it for what it is, enjoy it in the now and here. I intend to maximize each and every flight in my Waiex and protest, fight, kicking and screaming about gov't intervention, taxes, restrictions until I eventually loose the battle like every aging pilot. But, I'm not going quietly for now. LOL

Larry

[Sonex1517]

Excellent post Larry! All valid points and right on target.

As Eric Seber has stated - Aviation needs young people and young people need aviation....

[Pickleman]

Larry's post reminds my of a local pilot in his eighties who flew his immaculately maintained Navion into the local watering hole every late Sunday morning for Breakfast with his wife. lots of times they would bring another couple from their church. he did the prettiest circle-to-land pattern you ever saw, with the gear and flaps humming into place in perfect timing. He was and old WWII navy pilot. He bought the plane when it was a couple of years old, and the story went that it never saw an Federally sanctioned mechanic again. He flew and maintained it from a little airport in the hills. He flew all over Northern California to construction sites, and must have led a charmed life. No FAA intervention EVER. I talked to him one lime about how pretty and perfect his landings were, and he laughed that after landing a beat up Hellcat on a tiny carrier in boiling waters, "why a strip of asphalt 5000 feet long and 200 feet wide was a piece-o-cake!" I asked him what kind of ratings he had; at that time I was training for my IFR endorsement. He, still smiling from the landing comparison, related how when he left the military for the second time after serving in Korea, that he trusted his airplane to fly, and that the airplane returned the favor. It turns out he remained uncertified his entire life.

A few years ago, he passed on. One of the pilots helping to clean the hangar and sell the contents for the Widow remarked on the valuation loss in the Navion as basically a bootleg airplane. One of the other old boys at the table harrumphed and expressed his opinion that they could GIVE the airplane away and still come out ahead, considering fifty years of savings doing his own work and avoiding the dreaded cost of the Annual!

Liability aside, civil penalties aside, the old boy has a point. My airplane never asked me if I was a month or two behind getting my medical, and once i gave up the medical, the trusty Cessna never discussed the need for it before she and I parted ways either.

I DON'T advocate placing your life savings and the security of your spouse in the hands of the FAA and Fate. But that said, I can't help but admire the few cowboys left that do what they can to live--and die--a free man!

[daleandee]

I'm going to fly until they shoot me down or I run out of money.

I really liked this quote! It should be on a t-shirt!

:lol:

Dale
N319WF