To me it seems clear that it was a negative over G maneuver probably with some rudder thrown in:
The profile was transversely fractured, separating the horizontal and vertical flanges. Fracture features such as shear lips and rough matte grey surfaces indicated tensile and shear overstress fracturing. There were no indications of fatigue or other progressive crack growth. The profile fracture exhibited a 2.5 to 3 inches long tensile overstress in the vertical flange. The tensile region was at the right edge of the vertical flange, near the profile's fillet. The rest of the profile was fractured by shearing overstress in the horizontal flange.
The horizontal flange of the profile showed out-of-plane deformation, along with clear longitudinal elongations of the bolt holes. The vertical portion of the profile did not show any out-of-plane or within-plane deformation, but the two rightmost bolt holes exhibited elongation in the vertical direction.
Had the holes in the bulkhead that the forward angle attached to been better, it may have given enough margin to prevent the accident. With the low experience, and the fact that he ran out of fuel and then apparently did a big pushover, would he have survived if the tail stayed on? I am not sure. I think the motivation for Sonex to re-analyze this area is one positive thing to come out of the accident. There will be a lot more margin for poor workmanship and other factors.
Folks had mentioned the comfort they had in the tank being intact. The loads were probably low because it was empty. If it was full or partly full and survived that crash that would be a lot more telling. Did Sonex drop test the tank? I thought I read that somewhere.
Between the probable cause, the full narrative, the report, and the service bulliten I feel good about the Y tail. This is just my opinion of course. I never worked in accident investigation in my old company though I did work test.